Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
